Archive for the ‘work’ Category

What are the odds?

2010/10/19

I have just learned that tomorrow, the 20th of October 2010, is the first ever World Statistics Day – officially designated by the UN!

As a scientist, I directly use statistics every day, analysing and reporting results of experiments, and reading and evaluating the research of others.  As a regular person, I indirectly use statistics every day.

Some are statistics that I have gathered, consciously or unconsciously.  (When is the bus due?  How likely am I to catch it if I wait another 5 minutes?)

Some are statistics that I’ve been explicitly exposed to – in advertisements, media reports, or conversations with people I know.  (Will dressing like this help me get the job?  Will this candidate’s policies really improve the economy?  Will this candidate really implement these policies?  How bad is my lack of regular exercise for my long-term health?)

Responsible use of statistics is one of the greatest boons to modern science – from the development and evaluation of medical innovations (yay, Florence Nightingale!) to the examination of global climate (it’s changing).

Irresponsible use of statistics is an increasing threat.  From frauds misusing the numbers to promote quack alternatives to medicine, to news outlets misrepresenting results for the sake of a headline, to politicians and industry executives lying with a veneer of scientific credibility.

Without (responsible) statistics, we would be at the mercy of our appallingly bias-laden intuitions.  (Be honest, did you get the Monty Hall problem right when you first came across it?)  Without a basic understanding of statistics, we are at the mercy of people who will distort the data to try to convince us of anything.

A tiny side-note here:  despite the popular aphorism, it is not true that you can prove anything you want with statistics.  You can claim anything you want.  If your audience is ignorant enough you might get away with it.  But only by lying and distorting.  Statistics don’t lie to people; people lie to people (and often to themselves.) If you understand statistics – and I mean the basic concepts, not the fancy mathematical equations – then it is much harder for someone to lie to you with statistics.

Okay, I’d love to go on at greater length.  But I have some data to analyze.

In celebration, here are some things to check out.  Enjoy!

  • R, the best way to do statistics.  It’s free and it’s friendly.  It’s used in beginners courses, and it’s used by professional statisticians.  Give it a try.  You know you want to!
  • Ben Goldacre’s Bad Science blog and book, with loads of tips about what to look out for in popular portrayals of science and statistics.  (That book would serve as a good introduction to statistical thinking, among other things.)
  • Hans Rosling’s presentation of beautiful statistics (YouTube) – proving that stats don’t have to be boring and opaque.

While you wait …

2010/09/05

My last job ended recently, and after a long search I have found another one.  As this is academia, this one will also be temporary – I am slowly working my way through post-docs until I can achieve that great dream, the Permanent Position (also known as tenure-track).

But I’m not complaining.  This new post will let me work on a very interesting project.  And, while it will take me and my family away from Edinburgh, a fabulous city with wonderful people, it will be taking us to Boston.  Boston is also, reputedly, a fabulous city.  And it also houses many amazing folks.

One of my soon-to-be-fellow-Bostonians, Doug Muder, recently posted some thoughts on humanist spirituality that I thought you might enjoy.  That’s from his blog “Free and Responsible Search”, where he explores the philosophy and theology of Unitarian Universalism.

In this post, he attempts to answer the question “Does spirituality mean anything?” from a humanist standpoint.

I hope to share more thoughts with you after the move, once we are settled in Boston.

I have an idea …

2009/10/07

At work, I recently came across an amazing resource: CiteULike. It’s a free website where you can build up a list of citations. I use it to manage the long list of papers and books I read and cite as a researcher. I can label citations, like I label blog entries on this site, according to common themes.

It also has social features: sharing citations between users, getting automated recommendations based on common research interests. And there are Groups.

Which gives me an idea.

There are loads of skeptical blogs out there. There are the science-based parenting folks (such as SBP themselves, Rational Moms), the science-based medicine gang (SBM, Ben Goldacre, etc), and of course the general skeptics (Bruce Hood, Massimo Pigliucci, Richard Wiseman, and loads more).

These blogs often bring up new or interesting research that bears on our lives – as parents, as users (and taxpaying supporters) of health care, and just as people trying to navigate the modern world. But finding a particular study that I remember reading about on some skeptical blog can be a real pain.

So it occurs to me – why not set up a group, or a set of groups, on CiteULike, where skeptics could post scientific articles of interest to the community? You can put notes on each article – for example, pointing to reviews on skeptical blogs. You can talk about the articles (and the body of evidence around given topics, like acupuncture or spanking) in forums. You can associate informative tags with articles. Or you can simply hang out and see what other people have dug up. The resource could be used by bloggers who like to check original research, and also by skeptical consumers of new and traditional media claims.

It’s not something I can do on my own. I don’t have the time or the expertise to dig up all the relevant papers.

So this is a call to all you skeptics out there who have a little bit of time or expertise. Are you willing to help get things started?

I’ve taken the first step: I’ve created a CiteULike group, Skeptical Parenting, to pilot this idea. I chose parenting partly because that’s where I am closest to having some substantive expertise, and partly because my second child is due to arrive any day now.

The next step is up to you. Here is what I ask of anyone who is interested:

  • Join me as a member of the group, or start another group. “Paranormal Research”, “Science-Based Medicine Users” – whatever you’re most into as a skeptic. If you start another group, let us know in the comments here. (Do a search on CiteULike before starting the group to make sure someone hasn’t already started one.)
  • Blog about this yourself – not many people read my blog, but some of you have very widely-read blogs. The more people read about this idea, the sooner we’ll reach a sustainable number of participants.
  • Tell your friends. We don’t all have blogs, but we all have skeptical acquaintances on- and off-line that we can share cool new ideas with.
  • Comment here, so I know that I’m not just talking to myself.

I think we could build this into a really valuable resource. What do you think?

Roleplay to a cleaner house

2009/08/02

If everyone in your household already enjoys cleaning, this post isn’t for you. If you never have problems getting the chores done, then feel free to stop reading now.

Deena and I have just discovered a new way to keep track of chores and have fun doing them. It’s called Chore Wars, and it’s awesome. You register (for free) on the site, start up an adventuring party (your team), and decide what chores will merit rewards. When you complete a task, you claim it on the site. According to the FAQ,

Experience points are tracked both as weekly high-score charts, and as ongoing character sheets – every time you rack up 200XP of chores, your character gains a “level”, and their class changes to match the type of chores that they’ve been doing.

Think of it as a kind of Mary Poppins “spoonful of sugar” for people who are mostly grown up and enjoy roleplaying.

We’ve only just started, and we’re already having a blast. Deena’s almost ready to level up already. I’m only halfway there, but I have some dirty dishes waiting to help me catch up as soon as I post this.

I don’t expect we’ll end up like this, though I know some who might use it this way:
There are some promising testimonials on the site. We’ll have to wait and see how well it works out for us. But it has all the right elements. It’s fun (we love roleplaying); it’s practical (it doesn’t take much effort to do); it’s free.

So, if you like games, and if you’d like to try motivating yourself to do more housework, give Chore Wars a try.

[Edit: Just figured out how to do this - here's an image of my character (updated regularly).]

My Chore Wars character

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